Prof. Dr. Şenol Hakan Kutoğlu from ZONGULDAK Bülent Ecevit University (BEUN) stated that preparations for the major Marmara earthquake, which is expected to affect Istanbul, should be made as if it will be a magnitude 7.5 event. Kutoğlu, noting that there is an energy transfer from west to east along the fault lines in the Sea of Marmara, said, "Based on this, German scientists state that earthquakes in the Sea of Marmara have a migration characteristic from west to east. Therefore, if this theory holds true according to this claim, the earthquake mechanism is progressing from west to east towards the red segment. If that fault is locked as claimed, even the fault here could produce an earthquake greater than 7."
Prof. Dr. Şenol Hakan Kutoğlu, a faculty member in Geomatics Engineering at BEUN, stated that various confusing explanations have been made regarding the magnitude of earthquakes that faults in the Sea of Marmara could produce. Prof. Dr. Kutoğlu said, "All activities in earth sciences have a margin of error. Therefore, it would be very wrong to say that it will be exactly this magnitude. The earthquake could be around 6, or it could be magnitude 7. Everyone's scenario is different. What needs to be done in terms of earthquake preparedness is to prepare for the worst-case scenario. What we fear here is that due to the small figures given for this earthquake magnitude, complacency might arise among decision-makers or the public. As a result of this complacency, even if there's a very small chance, we could face a very heavy cost if an earthquake larger than expected occurs. For this reason, earthquake preparations in Istanbul and Marmara must be made according to the worst-case scenario, for a magnitude 7.5 earthquake. It is much more appropriate for discussions about lower magnitude earthquakes to be conducted within the scientific community itself."
'IT MAY APPEAR TO BE CREEPING ON THE SURFACE, BUT ITS DEPTH CAN EXTEND FOR KILOMETERS'
Kutoğlu stated that great suffering was experienced during the February 6 earthquakes and no scientist expected such a large earthquake, adding that preparations for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan were made for a magnitude 8.5 event, but a magnitude 9 earthquake occurred. Prof. Dr. Kutoğlu, stating that designing for a smaller earthquake magnitude leads to severe damage, said, "Therefore, even if the probability of an earthquake below magnitude 7 occurring in Marmara is much higher than an earthquake greater than 7, we must definitely make our preparations in the Marmara region according to the worst-case scenario, for a magnitude 7.5 earthquake, to avoid great suffering. One of the latest activities of the German Research Centre for Geosciences for 2025 is related to Marmara. In the study's visual, the faults are colored. The blue zone is one of the most important factors suggesting that there will not be an earthquake greater than 7. It is claimed that the fault in the middle segment is not locked, and there is a creeping movement here. There is a transition zone in the central region. The red line is said to be locked. In terms of seismicity, locked faults produce large earthquakes. In what we call creeping faults, the energy accumulation of the fault is much lower, but one should not be deceived by this. Because the fault may appear to be creeping on the surface, but the depths of faults can extend for tens of kilometers downwards. Therefore, it might be locked again in a certain section. The movement speed in the blue-indicated, creeping section is approximately 1 centimeter per year. But we know that the average speed of the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of Marmara region is between 2 and 3 centimeters. Therefore, there is a movement deficit here. Although the fault appears to be creeping on the surface, it must be locked at a certain depth for there to be a movement deficit. There is at least 1 centimeter of energy accumulation. It is also not true that creeping faults do not produce earthquakes. If it is at a certain depth, it can produce an earthquake, but the energy accumulation period is much longer. Therefore, one should not be deceived by this."
'EARTHQUAKES IN MARMARA ARE MIGRATING FROM WEST TO EAST'
Prof. Dr. Kutoğlu stated that German