According to the quarterly report published by a data platform on Thursday, spot transaction volume in the 10 largest central exchanges decreased by 27.9 percent to 1.95 trillion dollars, from 2.7 trillion dollars in the first quarter. Perpetual futures trading volume on central exchanges fell 10 percent to $12.7 trillion, while the stablecoin market fell 1.6 percent to $305.1 billion. Prediction markets recorded the strongest quarter in their history with a nominal volume of $113.8 billion.
This divergence highlighted the growing role of prediction markets. The biggest driving forces of the sector were sports and politics. According to the data, Polymarket's World Cup champion market alone attracted more than $3.3 billion in trading volume, while contracts tied to the 2028 US presidential election were among the platform's largest markets.
Despite the bear market, Binance expanded its dominance with 38.7 percent market share. The sharpest decline among spot exchanges was MEXC, whose transaction volume decreased by more than half, from $275.2 billion in the first quarter to $121.2 billion. The movement also weakened in decentralized exchanges. The top 10 spot decentralized exchanges processed $408.9 billion in volume in the quarter, compared to $556.4 billion in the first quarter. Uniswap strengthened its position as the leading decentralized exchange with a 41.2 percent market share, even though its volume decreased by 21.4 percent to 168.5 billion dollars.
The declines come at a time when the overall crypto market is weakening. Total market value decreased by 12.6 percent in the quarter to $2.1 trillion. April was the month with a record number of attacks in decentralized finance and brought security concerns on decentralized platforms back to the agenda.
Prediction market activity peaked in June, coinciding with the start of the FIFA World Cup. Monthly nominal volume, which represents the total value of all contracts traded, hit an all-time high of $50.7 billion, a 91.9 percent increase compared to the average of the previous five months.
Kalshi, the largest prediction market platform, maintained its leadership throughout the quarter with 58.9 percent market share. Polymarket's share decreased from 35.8 percent to 30.2 percent, and Robinhood-backed Rothera Markets rose to fourth place. The growth of the sector has also attracted the attention of regulators. In the US, regulators and states have clashed over whether prediction markets should be considered financial markets or gambling platforms, with cases involving platforms like Kalshi escalating in 2026. Authorities in other countries have also moved to restrict prediction markets due to concerns such as gambling rules, market integrity and insider trading risks.