The fragile military balances, which have been largely preserved in Yemen for nearly four years, were shaken by the re-escalation of tensions between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia after an Iranian plane attempted to land at Houthi-controlled Sanaa Airport.
The flight, which the Yemeni government described as a violation of airspace, the targeting of Sanaa Airport, and the Houthis' missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia, brought about harsh mutual statements.
Recent situations in Yemen, where large-scale frontline conflicts have decreased significantly after the ceasefire that came into force in April 2022, have brought the possibility of a new military escalation in the country to the agenda again.
While the Yemeni government argued that Iran was trying to establish a direct air connection with the Houthis, the Houthis described the targeting of Sanaa Airport as a "declaration of war" and announced that they were carrying out attacks against Saudi Arabia.
At the center of the tension are Iranian flights, which the Yemeni government describes as "a violation of the country's sovereignty".
The Yemeni administration announced that the Iranian Mahan Air company made a direct flight to Sana International Airport, which is under the control of the Houthis, on July 3, and on July 13, another plane from Iran tried to land in Sanaa again.
While the government argued that the flights in question violated United Nations resolutions and Yemen's sovereignty, the Houthis claimed that the flights were carried out within the scope of normal civilian activity.
As the crisis escalated, the Yemeni army announced that it targeted the airport runways in order to prevent the Iranian plane from landing at Sanaa International Airport. The Yemeni government also announced that the attack was carried out to prevent the landing of the Iranian plane, which was said to have violated the country's sovereignty. The Houthis claimed that the attack on the airport was organized by Saudi Arabia.
After the attack, the Iranian plane changed course and headed towards Hudaydah Airport in the west of Yemen. While sources close to the Houthis reported that the plane landed in Hodeidah, the Tehran administration did not make any official statement on the issue.
The Yemeni Presidential Council and the government made statements one after another regarding the situation.
Chairman of the Presidential Council Rashad al-Alimi instructed the government, army and security forces to increase the level of preparedness to the highest level.
Alimi stated that Iranian flights violated Yemen's sovereignty and said that "the creation of a de facto situation will not be allowed" in the country's airspace.
In his video statement, Yemeni Defense Minister Tahir al-Ukayli stated that Iranian planes violated Yemeni airspace and said, "We have run out of patience." and announced that there would be a military response to these violations.
Information Minister Muammar al-Iryani accused the Houthis of detaining the International Committee of the Red Cross plane and its crew at Sanaa Airport and called on the international community to take action.
On the other hand, the Yemeni government announced that the circular regarding the closure of the airspace due to the Iranian plane was soon lifted and that activities at airports across the country continued normally.
Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen claimed that they hit Abha Airport in the south of Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles after Sanaa Airport was targeted.
The coalition led by Saudi Arabia announced that air defense systems were activated against ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis.
The Houthis also threatened international airline companies using Saudi Arabian airspace, claiming that the attacks could continue until the restrictions on Sanaa Airport are lifted.
Postponement of prisoner exchange also increased tension
It was noteworthy that during the period of military tension, the comprehensive prisoner exchange planned to be held between the parties on July 11 was also postponed.
While the Yemeni government announced that the Houthis refused to implement the agreement, the Houthis argued that the government did not accept the addition of new names at the last minute.
The postponement of the agreement, which stipulated the release of a total of 1728 people, was considered as one of the situations indicating that the crisis of trust between the parties was deepening.
The United Nations (UN) also convened the Security Council with an urgent agenda regarding the situation.
UN Deputy Secretary-General Mohammed Khalid Hayari stated that the recent situations, including the flights to Iran, the targeting of Sanaa Airport and the flight to Hodeidah, seriously put the peace process at risk.
Hayari warned that unilateral steps would deepen the division in Yemen and called on all parties to reduce tensions and resolve disputes through dialogue.
Analysts are of the opinion that we have entered a new era
Yemeni political analysts, on the other hand, evaluate that the latest situation is not just a flight crisis, but also signs of a new era in the military and political balances in Yemen.
According to analysts, Iran's attempt to maintain a direct air connection with Sanaa and the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia's response to this with military methods show that the parties are trying to create new "red lines" on the field.
Experts point out that both the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are trying to avoid a comprehensive war, but the risk of miscalculation increases as mutual messages become harsher.
In the evaluations, it is stated that the Yemeni army is acting more organized compared to previous years, and the Houthis are uncomfortable with the possible unity on the government front, and it is stated that the current situation does not necessitate a large-scale war in the short term, but creates an open ground for new military tensions.
In Yemen, where the civil war has been going on for about 11 years, large-scale frontline conflicts have decreased significantly thanks to the ceasefire that started in April 2022.
On the other hand, the situations that have taken place around Iran flights in recent days reveal that the fragile balances that the parties have maintained for a long time are being tested again.
Experts warn that the parties do not prefer a direct comprehensive war, but if the current tension cannot be controlled, Yemen may be dragged into a large-scale conflict process again.
While the Yemeni government, recognized by the international community, has de facto control over large areas in the south and east of the country, especially the temporary capital Aden, the Iranian-backed Houthis control the capital Sanaa and many provinces in the north and west.
Although large-scale front-line conflicts between the parties in the civil war, which has been going on for about 11 years, have stopped significantly since April 2022, the situations around Iranian flights in recent days indicate that the fragile military balances in the field are being tested again.